Why Marcus Camby would be a premier center if he played today

Marcus Camby, a top tier defensive center in his hay day, may have a played an even bigger role if he came into the league in today’s era.

Marcus Camby was drafted into the league with high expectations; going number two overall to a Toronto Raptors team that only had a year of existence under its belt. Camby was supposed to be the Raptor’s franchise big man, complimenting the play of their rookie of the year from the season before, Damon Stoudamire. And while Camby did develop into a solid starter and a defensive stud in the prime of his career, it all could’ve been so much more.

Born Too Soon:

As discussed in my big men of the 2018 NBA Draft analysis, the best centers in today’s league are divided into two categories; versatile bigs and rim running/rim protecting bigs. The latter is where Camby would excel in today’s game.

For sake of argument, let’s say Camby’s prime year was 2007 (the year he won DPOY). The only all star big that year that even somewhat resembled the prototypical rim runner of today was Dwight Howard (and even Howard was utilized more as a post scorer). Camby was the best defensive player in the league that year, and he couldn’t even make an all-star game. For comparison, every DPOY since Camby has made the all star game that season (besides Gobert this season who only missed out on a selection due to being injured for the first half of the season). Simply put, Camby was an anachronistic big, stuck in an era that didn’t suit his style. If Camby had played today, his numbers not only would be more impactful, they would also be greater overall in value. Let’s take a look:

Behind the Numbers:

Camby didn’t take long to start becoming a defensive force at the rim, averaging 2.1 blocks per game his rookie season. During his prime years, (2005-2008), he went on to average 3.41 blocks per game; for reference, Rudy Gobert the premier shot blocker of today has never averaged more than 2.6 blocks. However, the advanced stats of today paint an even more transparent picture of just how impactful rim protectors are. During the 2017-2018 season, out all centers who played more than 50 games. Zach Collins of the Trail Blazers had the best DFG% while protecting the rim, 47% (FG% opponents shot at the rim while Collins was contesting their shot). Out of all-star bigs, Joel Embiid had the best DFG% at the rim, holding opponent to just 50.1% (overall the second best percentage for bigs who played more than 50 games). Despite this stat not being available while Camby was playing in his prime, I was able to generate a model that predicts what his DFG% at the rim would be if he played today. Using his block rate of 7% during the 2006-2007 season, I was able to conclude that with 95% confidence, Camby on average would hold opponent to a 51.40 FG% at the rim, which would be good for sixth best in the league this season (behind Collins, Embiid, Pau Gasol, Poeltl, and Anthony Davis). If Camby played today and accumulated both the BPG he did during his DPOY season (3.3), and the predicted DFG%(51.4%), him and Hassan Whiteside would be the only players to average above both 3 blocks per game and hold opponents to below 51.5% at the rim in the same season (since DFG% at the rim became a stat during the 2013-2014 season). With these stats, it's clear Camby would be the premier shot blocker during the 2017-2018 season, and would be the favorite to win DPOY over Gobert.

Now that’s just Camby’s impact on one side of the ball; let’s take a look at how Camby’s offensive game would’ve benefitted from playing in today’s era. Let’s once again look at Camby’s prime seasons (2005-2008). During his prime years, Camby took .398 of his shots at the rim, while settling for long twos .376 of the time. Not only are long twos now a cardinal sin in basketball, Camby was not even proficient in taking these shots. During these season, he only shot 36% from the long two. If Camby played today, his game would be optimized by taking that percentage of long twos and distributing it into shots at the rim. Let’s look at Clint Capella as a reference: Capella took 80% of his shots at the rim. . . a little more than double the amount Camby did. Let’s be conservative and say if Camby played today, he would shoot 60% of his shots at the rim, meaning Camby would have shot 395 shots overall at the rim (using 2006-2007 stats as a reference). Using his FG% at the rim during 2006-2007 (61.6%), Camby would have made 243 of those shots, which would contribute to 486 points. If Camby now shoots only .174 of his shots from the long two, about 115 shots, shooting a percentage of .347 (2006-2007 average) would add 80 points to his scoring total. Camby would still shoot .101 of his shots from 3-10 feet, .108 of shots would come from the mid-range (10-16 feet), and the additional .017 would still be taken from three. All of this would add 116 points to his season, and when adding the 161 free throws he made that season (also being conservative, as he most likely would attempt more free throws if he’s attempting more shots at the rim), Camby would now average 12 PPG, up from 11.2 PPG. This may not seem like a lot, but you also have to remember, if Camby was playing in today’s era, he would not only be getting more shots at the rim, he would most likely get more shots overall (including free throws); playing in a pick and roll heavy offensive system where lobs to him would be abundant. It’s not absurd to think, that if Camby played today, assuming Camby’s efficiency translated to this era (which it most certainly should), Camby could easily average 15 to 16 points per game, and when complimented with his 3 .41 BPGS and 12.3 RPGs, Camby would be the first player to average at least 3 BPGs, 12 RPGS, and 15 PPGs since Shaq averaged 29 PPGs, 3 BPGS, and 13.6 RPGS at the turn of the century (1999-2000). Camby would be nowhere near the offensively dominant force that Shaq was; I’m in no way saying that. However, the point I am driving at is: placing Camby in today’s era could’ve put him in historic company.