Betts, J.D., Ramirez? Who's The AL MVP?

All Stats Accurate as of 8/14/2018

Three names headline the AL MVP Race: Mookie Betts of the Boston Red Sox, J.D. Martinez of the Boston Red Sox, and Jose Ramirez of the Cleveland Indians. All three are having years that make your mouths drop and eyes go wide. Each candidate’s team is not only leading their division but running away with the division crown. All three are solid choices. Only one can be named the BBWAA MVP for the 2018 Season. I break down the numbers to show why one candidate stands out amongst the trio.

As stated above, all three players are having ridiculous season. The lines for the trio as of August 14th are as follows:

Betts: .350/.439 OBP/.668 Slugging with 27 HR, 63 RBI, and 99 Runs Scored.

Martinez: .333/.400 OBP/.665 Slugging with 37 HR, 104 RBI, and 87 Runs Scored

Ramirez: .305/.414 OBP/.640 Slugging with 36 HR, 89 RBI, and 84 Runs Scored

These numbers are only a snapshot of the years these players are having. Looking quickly, one could argue that Martinez is having the best overall year thanks to his Home Runs and massive RBI amount. One could also easily discredit the year of Jose Ramirez due to his lower average and run totals. Let’s dive deeper into the historic seasons this trio is having.

To start, let’s compare numbers outside of your basic triple crown categories.

Betts: 101 Games, 465 plate appearances, 139 hits, 35 doubles, 5 triples, 23 stolen bases, 62 strikeouts, 59 walks

Martinez: 114 Games, 495 plate appearances, 146 hits, 33 doubles, 1 triples, 4 stolen bases, 117 strikeouts, 48 walks

Ramirez: 117 Games, 519 plate appearances, 132 hits, 31 doubles, 3 triples, 31 stolen bases, 57 strikeouts, 79 walks

Side note: I discredit gap in plate appearances/games played. Mookie Betts dealt with an abdominal strain in early June and was forced to miss games. Because of this, his PA number is obviously lower than that of Ramirez and Martinez. All three are on pace to play roughly 140 games, more than enough to be given strong consideration for the MVP award. Second, I am going to be using Plate Appearances because At Bats are a misleading stat. Someone that does not walk much will have inflated number of at bats if compared to someone like Mike Trout, who has only played 109 games but walked 99 times. Plate appearances allow for a fuller picture as to the impact the batter has on a game because it is how many times a pitcher will have to face him over the span of a game.

The first thing that pops out is that all three batters are the slugging numbers of all the batters. Not only are these three hitters all going to hit over 35+ Home Runs, Martinez and Ramirez both have a chance to hit upwards of 50 Home Runs, a mark that has only been reached 16 times since the 2000 season. Regardless of the notion that the balls are juiced, 50 big flies in a single season is a rare occasion and to have a chance for multiple players to do it in the same year has only been done 5 times since the 2000 year. On top of the home runs, each player will hit 40+ doubles, producing runs and clogging the base paths. While Betts is not as high on RBIs as Ramirez and Martinez are due to him leading off, his 35 doubles lead the trio, this while missing time in June.

One major difference one sees immediately is the discrepancy in the strikeout numbers. Betts and Ramirez have low strikeout numbers, Betts has struck out only 62 times in 465 PA’s while Ramirez has only K’d 57 times in 519 appearances. Martinez has more prototypical strikeout numbers for a power hitter, having struck out 117 times in 495 PA’s. As for walks, it is much the same. Martinez lags behind Betts who is well behind Ramirez. Ramirez has walked 79 times already, good for 5th in the MLB. That obviously reflects in the gap between his average (.305) and his OBP (.414). Ramirez’ ability to get on base and limiting his strikeout numbers create an impressive combination when you factor in his power numbers.

The next discrepancy is the ability to run the bases. Betts and Ramirez are both stolen base threats. Turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples via the stolen base is an ability that is often overlooked when a hitter hits for power. Martinez inability to advance on the bases also shows in that he only has 1 triple, although the Fenway affect is in play given that he hits from the right side in a park where the left field wall is under 320 feet down the line. Regardless, Ramirez leads the trio with 27 stolen bases and he has a chance to be a 40 HR/40 SB player, something that has only been done 4 times in the liveball era, with Alfonso Soriano being the last player to do it in 2006.

Now let’s get into the sabermetrics and self-designed stats.

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

MLB Average: .300

Betts: .360

Ramirez: .280

Martinez: .377

Exit Velocity (MPH)

MLB Average: 88.5

Betts: 92.5

Ramirez: 93.4

Martinez: 89.4

The next table breaks down these players on a micro level, looking at plate appearances and pitches seen and comparing them to various other stats, such as strikeouts, walks, etc.

The first thing that one can see is the low BABIP of Jose Ramirez when compared to J.D. and Mookie. Often, it is said that those with a BABIP lower than .300 are ‘unlucky.’ However, his mediocre exit velocity of 89.4 MPH tells a different story. Yes, the home run numbers are high for Ramirez. However, BABIP does not take those into account. When Ramirez is not putting the ball in the stands, he is a mediocre batsman at best. On the flip side, Betts and Ramirez are both ridiculous when the ball does not leave the yard, as the stats above show. Ramirez does not hit the ball as hard as the other two, leading to a lower BABIP, lower average, and more than likely less consideration for MVP.

Breaking down that table shown above, one thing is certain: all three are on good offensive teams. All three are averaging better than a hit per game. Betts’s lead in PA/G comes from the fact that he leads off. However, his lead in PA/H is not a coincidence given his .350 average. Ramirez lags behind in PA/G, again, due to his lower exit velocity and BABIP. Next, it is interesting to see the difference in the strikeout numbers. J.D. Martinez is striking out better than once per game, with his PA/G being 4.34 and his PA/K at 4.23. While this is not uncommon for big time power hitters, the Betts is striking out just over once per two games, with Ramirez striking out less than once every 2 games. The ability of the Betts and Ramirez to put the ball in play more often creates more opportunities for advancing runners, chances for free base runners due to errors, etc.

Going back to the walk numbers, Martinez’ inability to draw a free pass shows greater when breaking down the numbers. He is walking roughly 2.5 games, with Betts walking every other game and Ramirez 2 out of every 3 games. This leads me to my next point: Martinez lesser ability to work counts. Martinez is seeing the least amount of pitches per plate appearance. This means he is seeing the least pitchers per game. Each additional pitch seen places a greater toll on the pitcher and on the bullpen of the other team. Ramirez and Betts are each seeing about 2 pitches more per game than J.D. This is not a big deal when looking at one player in one game. Multiply that on a seasonal basis, Ramirez and Betts are making pitchers throw additional games’ worth of pitches when compared to Martinez. Wearing pitchers out is something the best players do, and Betts and Ramirez do the job better than Martinez.

Now that all these numbers are out there, let’s put it all together. The odd man out in all of this is Jose Ramirez. As great a season as he is having, his low BABIP, low average compared to Betts/Martinez, poor exit velocity, and RBI numbers for his home run total make him the 3rd place finisher in the AL MVP race. While he does play for a winning team, the AL Central is an absolute train wreck of a division, with only Cleveland being above .500.

And then there were 2. Martinez and Betts. Teammates on the field, rivals in the award races. Glancing quickly at the Triple Crown stats, one may say that Martinez has had the far superior year. Diving deeper, it is the opposite that is true. While Betts does not have the HR or RBI numbers that Martinez does due to his play style/spot in the lineup, he is outperforming him in the vast majority of the other categories listed above. Don’t get me wrong, J.D. Martinez is having a monstrous year. He is not only competing for the MVP but also the Triple Crown. However, Betts’ ability to draw more walks, steal bases, score more runs, and make pitchers work more is overwhelming when looking at the stat lines, not to mention that he plays Gold Glove defense, something I did not even begin to mention when writing this article.

In summary, all three candidates are owning the game of baseball. J.D. Martinez is a $25 million bargain. Betts is the best outfielder not named Trout, and Ramirez is a walk-taking, base-stealing, dinger-hitting machine. However, there can be only one MVP. My pick for the 2018 AL MVP plays for the Boston Red Sox and wears #50. That man is Markus ‘Mookie’ Betts.

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