Bang for your Buck. Pt 2

As with any position in any sport, players are going to be ranked and put into tiers. Wide Receiver is no exception to this debate, AJ Green or Odell Beckham Jr? Keenan Allen or Michael Thomas? The question of who is the better player will continue to rage by using simple statistics. It isn't fair to compare players off simple stats such as YPG or TDs. Teams are different, offenses operate in different capacities and create different opportunities. Some like the Steelers rely on big plays and downfield route patterns, where the Patriots methodically pick apart a defense waiting for their deep shot. So what if we could evaluate a player off their importance to the offense as a whole?

Part one gave an insight into the individual production of Wide Receivers. Part two is going to show exactly how important Wide Receivers are to their respective offenses. To evaluate receivers from this perspective I created a model focusing on an offenses reliance on a player, specifically the targets and yards a player generated. The numbers below are a product of my Offensive Reliance Statistic (ORS) model. The higher the percentage, the more attention a receiver has from his offensive coordinator and from his quarterback.

Standouts from this model were predictable, Deandre Hopkins and Antonio Brown produced the two highest ORS scores, 7.15 and 7.82 respectively. I expected Hopkins to post a high score in this model due to two factors. The first being Houston lacking multiple legitimate skill players. This leads to the quarterback looking for Hopkins much more frequently than any other receiver, running back, or tight end. As for Brown, he is the product of an electric Pittsburgh passing attack. Unlike Houston, Pittsburgh has many quality receivers and produced nearly 275 passing yards per game. In comparison, Houston barely broke 200 yards per game. I do expect the return of Deshaun Watson to improve both Houston's passing and receiving statistics. It will be interesting to see if Brown is still able to produce similar numbers with the emergence of JuJu Smith Schuster. As rookie Schuster has a solid season and produced an ORS of 4.44, the best of any rookie receiver. The Leveon Bell contract debacle could potentially lead to a slow start for the star running back and may lead to even bigger seasons for both Brown and Schuster.

As for disappointments, Stefon Diggs was a surprise. After the Vikings strong run to the NFC championship, last season Diggs received much praise for his play. However, my model suggests that Adam Thielen was more of a factor in the Vikings offense. Diggs produced an ORS of 5, which is mediocre compared to Thielens 6.3.Yes, Diggs played two fewer games, but he had over 400 fewer yards and nearly 30 fewer receptions which he definitely would not have covered if he had played in those games. It will be interesting to see how Kirk Cousins changes the statistics of these two players. Cousins likes pushing the ball down the field often and that will be more favorable for Diggs' play style. If Cousins is able to throw accurately downfield and Diggs can stay healthy then I could see Diggs posting an ORS around 6.7, a number comparable to the ORS from Keenan Allen last season.

Part three of this series will examine touchdown production and fantasy touchdown importance.

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