Betting on Mediocrity: My Week 1 PL Pick

Today the Premier League begins, as Leicester takes on Manchester United. Manchester United is likely to win; however, the line is almost untouchable as United will need to win by two to get a good return on investment. Manchester United winning by two is a tough bet considering they only scored 68 goals over 38 games last season, which is 1.78 goals a game.

The most attractive game is Burnley at Southampton. Last season Burnley won 52% of their points away from home, which is the highest percentage in the league. And last season Burnley achieved their best record since the rebranding of the Premier League in 1992, with a 7th place finish. Burnley are a team known for a strong defense and a poor offense. Last season they only scored 36 goals and conceded 39. This resulted in a record of 14 wins, 12 draws, and 12 losses.

Meanwhile Southampton narrowly avoided relegation by finishing 17th. They had 7 wins, 15 draws, and 16 losses. They scored 37 goals and conceded 56. They have made some solid moves in the transfer market with the signing of Vestergaard from Borussia Monchengladbach, Elyounoussi from Basel, and Danny Ings from Liverpool. However, it often takes players a few weeks to be familiar with the team’s system and make an impact.

The Line

The most attractive pick is Burnley at +0.5 (+105). This means that your pick is correct if Burnley win or draw.

Historically, this has been the trend. In the 6 times Burnley and Southampton have met, Burnley won 3 times and drawn 1 time. Burnley has only conceded 6 goals, but have only scored 5. A record of 11 goals total suggest that a draw is probable. Taking into account the poor offense of Burnley and Southampton, and the great defense of Burnley. I am taking Burnley to win or draw during week 1.