Your 2018-19 Premier League Top 4

After a grueling month where there was competitive soccer, the Premier League is set to return. Which calls for a top 4 prediction table. And this year the Premier League closes its transfer window at the start of the Season, August 9th, instead of the FIFA transfer deadline of August 31st. Other leagues have set their own transfer deadlines: Serie A (Italy) closes August 17, and the Bundesliga (Germany), Ligue 1 (France), and La Liga (Spain) close August 31st.

An early transfer window has resulted in teams adopting a policy where they refuse to sell important players unless an adequate replacement can be found before the transfer window closes. A policy where important players are not sold before August 9th means that the current squads are indicative of this season’s squad, or at least until January.

The top 4 for the 2018-19 Premier League season will be:

1. Manchester City

2. Liverpool

3. Manchester United

4. Chelsea

Manchester City

Last year’s Manchester City is one of the best teams the Premier League has ever seen. They broke the Premier League’s all-time points with 100 points, they set the record for the most goals scored in a season with 106 goals, and they only conceded 27 goals. What’s even more impressive is that Manchester City only scored six goals from penalties.

Manchester City’s best asset is depth. Last season they used 25 different players in the league. Their depth will allow the squad to survive an injury crisis or push for a late win. Additionally, Manchester City’s depth will allow Pep Guardiola to field a squad of players who did go far in the World Cup. Players who made it to the World Cup quarter-finals are still on vacation and will not feature heavily in the first few weeks of the season. But strong players for Manchester City like Sane, David Silva, Fernandino, Gundogan, Laporte, Danilo, Mahrez, and Aguero have been training together and will be available for selection. This successful start will build momentum that will carry on into the rest of the season.

It’s hard to see why Manchester City can’t replicate last season’s form. Their squad is almost identical, except for the addition of Riyad Mahrez and the return of Benjamin Mendy. If their players are content with rotation Manchester City should win the 2018-19 Premier League Season.

Liverpool

Liverpool are objectively a better team than last year. Liverpool have typically been characterized as a team that scores a ton of goals, but has a problem conceding. Last season they scored 84 goals from 233 shots on target, while conceding 38 goals. This lead them to a record of 21 wins, 12 draws, and 5 losses. If Liverpool can reduce the number of times they draw, they can make a serious push to the top of the table.

Liverpool have looked to strengthen their midfield and defense with the signings of Alisson, Naby Keita, and Fabinho. This will help a defense that has been improving since the signing of Virgil Van Dyke last January. Since the Van Dyke signing, Liverpool only conceded 13 goals, contrasted to the 25 goals scored before he signed. If Liverpool’s new additions can reduce the goals conceded, then Liverpool will be a very good team this season and can finish second.

Manchester United

3rd – 6th is going to be up for grabs this year, but I think Manchester United have enough quality to take 3rd place. Manchester United’s problem since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement has been its offense. Last season Manchester United scored 68 goals from 178 shots on target, and they conceded only 28 goals. In order to boost their offense United signed Fred this summer, and Alexis Sanchez last January. On paper, Manchester United should do very well. They have Rashford, Martial, Lukaku, and Sanchez as forwards. And they have a selection of versatile midfielders in Mata, Matic, Pogba, Lingard, Fellaini, Fred, and Herrera. If Manchester United are able to get better shots on target, and score more goals, then they can have a real push.

One issue that may be problematic is Jose Mourinho. Mourinho typically struggles in his 3rd season (see the 2015-16 Chelsea season). Rumor has it that the addition of Alexis Sanchez has upset Martial. If Martial is not sold by the start of the transfer window, and Martial is not given an improved role, Mourinho risks poisoning the locker-room atmosphere and potentially losing the squad. If that happens players may underperform and Mourinho may lose some critical games (see the 2015-16 Chelsea season).

But one of Mourinho’s strengths is his results against top 6 teams. Last season his record against top 6 teams was 6 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw. If Mourinho can replicate last season, he will do well enough against top 6 teams to secure a third place finish.

Chelsea

It is going to be a very strange season for Chelsea this season. The arrival of Sarri suggests that Chelsea will play a more attacking style and move away from the 3-5-2 formation favoured by Antonio Conte. Napoli last season played an attacking 4-3-3, and its striker Dries Mertens managed to score 18 goals and assist 6 times. However, Chelsea lacks quality strikers. Currently they are set to start Alvaro Morata, Michy Batshuayi, and Oliver Giroud. Last season Alvaro Morata registered 79 shots, but only scored 11 goals. 7 of those goals were scored with his head. None of those strikers have demonstrated that they are able to lead the line against teams that park the bus. Teams that park the bus shift more players defensively. As a result, Chelsea will struggle with crosses, Morata will fail to score, and wingers like Willian will fail to make an impact.

However, Chelsea has enough quality to clinch a 4th place finish. Last season Kante recorded 113 tackles and 85 interceptions. N’Golo Kante’s defensive quality will be crucial to recycling possession and protecting the back four. Additionally, the signing of Jorginho will be crucial to moving the ball and preventing the reliance on Eden Hazard that symbolizes the Chelsea of the last five years. Proper ball movement will allow Hazard to make a greater impact then before and should help Chelsea edge out wins against teams at the bottom of the table.

Additionally, there may be some squad drama due to Thibaut Courtois’s potential move to Real Madrid. Although Courtois has not handed in an official transfer record, he has made his desire to move Real Madrid very clear. However, Chelsea will not sell Courtois without finding an adequate replacement. And an adequate replacement is unlikely to be found in the next week. It will be interesting to see what happens next as Courtois’s contract expires at the end of this season. Either Chelsea sign a new goalkeeper this week, Courtois plays until January and then moves, or Courtois plays with the reserves until January (similar to Florent Malouda in 2012-13 season). Regardless of the result, this could lead to a hostile dressing room. But in my opinion the optimism from the signing of Sarri should be enough to secure a top 4 finish.